Growing
$100,000 invested in Oct 2007
The picks alone ended at 2.5 to 3 times what the S&P 500 Growth index did over 19 years, through the 2008 crash.
Picks made in advance and held through Oct 2026
Top 25 picks
$2.38M
18.2% a year · Worst drop −64%3x VOOG
All model picks
$2.01M
17.1% a year · Worst drop −59%2.5x VOOG
S&P 500 Growth (VOOG)
$804K
11.6% a year · Worst drop −50%Index fund
The model's picks, made in advance: the 54 that were trading in Oct 2007, $100,000 split equally on Oct 22, 2007 and held to Oct 20, 2026. Top 25 are the 25 with the best three-year record as of Oct 2007. Calculated from actual daily closing prices, not a client account. Price returns before dividends, fees and taxes. Two companies that no longer trade are left out. VOOG before Sep 2010 uses IVW, which tracks the same index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Protecting
Same stocks, smaller drops
Adding the rest of the model, rotation and the bear-market switches, cut the worst drop on the same stocks nearly in half.
Worst drop from a high, Jan 2000 to Oct 2026 (model test). Shorter bar is better.
Full model: picks, rotation, market switches
−35%
2008: +6.9% · 2022: −3.1%
Same 49 stocks, held
−63%
2008: −40.1% · 2022: −13.7%
S&P 500 (SPY)
−55%
2008: −34.5% · 2022: −18.7%
Model test (backtest), not a client account or live results: today's 49 picks from Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 30, 2026, equal amounts rebalanced daily, trades at the next day's open, cash earns nothing, and no dividends, trading costs or taxes (the SPY line includes dividends). 2008 and 2022 are calendar-year returns. The picks were chosen in 2026, which flatters any line that holds them, so compare the model with holding the same stocks. The model sells often, so taxes in a regular account would lower its result. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Coming soon
Live signals from the full model start when its final checks are done.